2026
Statistics Colloquium: Xinran Li
11:30 am–12:30 pm Jones 303
Xinran Li
Department of Statistics
University of Chicago
Title: Randomization Inference with Sample Attrition
Abstract: Sample attrition, or equivalently missing outcomes, is a common challenge in randomized controlled experiments, and analyses that simply discard units with missing outcomes may suffer from severe bias. In this talk, we develop computationally efficient methods for randomization inference that remain valid under a broad class of potentially informative missingness mechanisms, allowing a unit’s missingness to depend on its potential outcomes. We pay particular attention to monotone missingness mechanisms, under which outcomes are systematically more likely to be observed under treatment than under control, or vice versa. Such restrictions arise naturally in many empirical settings, especially in the social sciences.
Specifically, we construct valid p-values for testing sharp, bounded, and quantile null hypotheses on treatment effects through a worst-case consideration of the classical Fisher randomization test. By leveraging distribution-free test statistics, these worst-case p-values can be computed efficiently and often admit closed-form solutions. Importantly, by incorporating both potential outcomes and potential missingness indicators into the test statistic, our methods can exploit structural assumptions such as monotone missingness to sharpen inference. Our approach also connects to a range of partial-identification bounds in the literature. We illustrate the proposed methods through simulation studies and empirical applications evaluating the impacts of job training, media censorship, and artificial intelligence.
Student Seminar: Yinjie Wang
4:30–5:00 pm Jones 111
Thursday, July 23, 2026, at 4:30 PM, in Jones 111, 5747 S. Ellis Avenue
Master’s Thesis Presentation
Yinjie Wang, Department of Statistics, The University of Chicago
“Simple and Effective Query-Adaptive Sparse Attention”
Student Seminar: Arnav Rastogi
2:00–2:30 pm Jones 111
Thursday, July 23, 2026, at 2:00 PM, in Jones 111, 5747 S. Ellis Avenue
Master’s Thesis Presentation
Arnav Rastogi, Department of Statistics, The University of Chicago
“Measuring, Representing, and Steering Premium–Value Brand Positioning in Beauty and Personal Care”
Student Seminar: Brian Park
10:00–10:30 am Jones 111
Wednesday, July 22, 2026, at 10:00 AM, in Jones 111, 5747 S. Ellis Avenue
Master’s Thesis Presentation
Brian Park, Department of Statistics, The University of Chicago
“Separating Predictive Gains from Incremental Information: Text Embeddings and Analyst Forecasts of Corporate Earnings”
Student Seminar: Yuta Iwai
2:30–3:00 pm Jones 111
Monday, July 20, 2026, at 2:30 PM, in Jones 111, 5747 S. Ellis Avenue
Master’s Thesis Presentation
Yuta Iwai, Department of Statistics, The University of Chicago
“Evaluation of McScan for Change Point Detection in High-Dimensional Linear Regression with an Application to Macroeconomic Data”
Student Seminar: Pratik Chheda
2:00–2:30 pm Jones 111
Monday, July 20, 2026, at 2:00 PM, in Jones 111, 5747 S. Ellis Avenue
Master’s Thesis Presentation
Pratik Chheda, Department of Statistics, The University of Chicago
“Comparing Multivariate Value at Risk Forecasting Models: A Reproduction and Empirical Extension”
Student Seminars: Ziming Gan
10:00–11:00 am Zoom Meeting
Wednesday, July 8, 2026, at 10:00 AM, in Jones 111, 5747 S. Ellis Avenue
Dissertation Defense Presentation
Ziming Gan, Department of Statistics, The University of Chicago
“Statistical Methods for Structure Discovery in Genomic and Clinical Data”
Student Seminars: Kulunu Dharmakeerthi
12:30–2:00 pm Jones 111
Thursday, June 18, 2026, at 12:30 PM, in Jones 111, 5747 S. Ellis Avenue
Dissertation Defense Presentation
Kulunu Dharmakeerthi, Department of Statistics, The University of Chicago
“Recovering Structure from Observational Data: Representation, Simulation and Stability”
Student Seminars: Aabesh Bhattacharyya
10:00 am–12:00 pm Jones 304
Thursday, June 18, 2026, at 10:00 AM, in Jones 304, 5747 S. Ellis Avenue
Dissertation Defense Presentation
Aabesh Bhattacharyya, Department of Statistics, The University of Chicago
“Problems in modern inference: distribution free prediction and goodness of fit testing”
Student Seminars: Dong Xie
4:00–5:00 pm Jones 111
Thursday, June 11, 2026, at 4:00 PM, in Jones 111, 5747 S. Ellis Avenue
Dissertation Proposal Presentation
Dong Xie, Department of Statistics, The University of Chicago
“Robust Estimation and Inference in Regression”